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<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/" article-type="other" dtd-version="1.2" xml:lang="en"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Tumors of female reproductive system</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="en">Tumors of female reproductive system</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="ru"><trans-title>Опухоли женской репродуктивной системы</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn publication-format="print">1994-4098</issn><issn publication-format="electronic">1999-8627</issn><publisher><publisher-name xml:lang="en">Publishing House ABV Press</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">1240</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17650/1994-4098-2024-16-2-90-98</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>GYNECOLOGY. ORIGINAL REPORTS</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ГИНЕКОЛОГИЯ. ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="article-type"><subject></subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title xml:lang="en">The possibilities of predicting the individual risk of cervical cancer in women of reproductive age using mathematical modeling</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="ru"><trans-title>Возможности прогнозирования индивидуального риска развития рака шейки матки у женщин репродуктивного возраста с помощью математического моделирования</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Klyukina</surname><given-names>L. A.</given-names></name><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Клюкина</surname><given-names>Л. А.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><address><country country="RU">Russian Federation</country></address><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Lidiya Aleksandrovna Klyukina</p><p>Build. 2, 8 Trubetskaya St., Moscow 119992</p></bio><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Лидия Александровна Клюкина</p><p>119991 Москва, ул. Трубецкая, 8, стр. 2</p></bio><email>lidiaklyukina@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1732-6870</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Sosnova</surname><given-names>E. A.</given-names></name><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Соснова</surname><given-names>Е. А.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><address><country country="RU">Russian Federation</country></address><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Build. 2, 8 Trubetskaya St., Moscow 119992</p></bio><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>119991 Москва, ул. Трубецкая, 8, стр. 2</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4476-4972</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Ishchenko</surname><given-names>A. A.</given-names></name><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Ищенко</surname><given-names>А. А.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><address><country country="RU">Russian Federation</country></address><bio xml:lang="en"><p>3 Ivankovskoe Shosse, Moscow 125367</p></bio><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>125367 Москва, Иваньковское шоссе, 3</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5038-9307</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Davydov</surname><given-names>M. M.</given-names></name><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Давыдов</surname><given-names>М. М.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><address><country country="RU">Russian Federation</country></address><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Build. 2, 8 Trubetskaya St., Moscow 119992</p></bio><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>119991 Москва, ул. Трубецкая, 8, стр. 2</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff1"><aff><institution xml:lang="en">I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Ministry of Health of Russia</institution></aff><aff><institution xml:lang="ru">ФГАОУ ВО Первый Московский государственный медицинский университет им. И.М. Сеченова Минздрава России&#13;
(Сеченовский Университет)</institution></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff2"><aff><institution xml:lang="en">National Medical Research Center “Medical and Rehabilitation Center”, Ministry of Health of Russia</institution></aff><aff><institution xml:lang="ru">ФГАУ «Национальный медицинский исследовательский центр «Лечебно-реабилитационный центр» Минздрава России</institution></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2024-07-29" publication-format="electronic"><day>29</day><month>07</month><year>2024</year></pub-date><volume>20</volume><issue>2</issue><issue-title xml:lang="en"/><issue-title xml:lang="ru"/><fpage>90</fpage><lpage>98</lpage><history><date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="2024-07-29"><day>29</day><month>07</month><year>2024</year></date><date date-type="accepted" iso-8601-date="2024-07-29"><day>29</day><month>07</month><year>2024</year></date></history><permissions><ali:free_to_read xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/"/></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://ojrs.abvpress.ru/ojrs/article/view/1240">https://ojrs.abvpress.ru/ojrs/article/view/1240</self-uri><abstract xml:lang="en"><p><bold>Background.</bold> Cervical cancer (CC) refers to cancer of visual localization and in women of reproductive age remains one of the most common oncological diseases. The carcinogenesis of CC is caused by the persistence of highly oncogenic types of human papillomavirus (HPV), the level of carcinogenicity of which is the highest based on the criteria of the International Agency for Research on Cancer. However, cervical carcinogenesis does not occur in all cases of persistence of highly oncogenic types of HPV. This, in turn, determines the need for a thorough search, study and analysis of possible cofactors that can lead to neoplastic changes in the cervix.</p><p><bold>Aim</bold>. To develop a model for predicting the individual risk of CC in women of reproductive age, taking into account clinical, anamnestic, laboratory and histological data.</p><p><bold>Materials and methods.</bold> The material for the study was retrospective examination data from 251 patients of reproductive age who were treated at the Center for Gynecology and Reproductive Technologies of the National Medical Research Center “Medical and Rehabilitation Center”, Ministry of Health of Russia in the period 2015–2022. Results. Highly oncogenic HPV types were significantly more common in the group of patients with verified СС who took combined oral contraceptives (COC), compared with patients who did not take COC (<italic>p </italic>= 0.035). Multifactorial analysis allowed us to determine that long-term use of СОС for a total of more than 7 years is associated with a tendency to increase the risk of developing СС (hazard ratio 1.68; 95 % confidence interval 1.1–2.5; <italic>p </italic>= 0.010). According to the results of statistical calculation, the values of regression coefficients were obtained and the tendency to increase the risk of developing CC was predicted in the presence of such factors as: HPV type 16 persistence, body mass index, and the duration of COC intake in years.</p><p><bold>Conclusion.</bold> Thus, taking into account all possible risk factors for CC, the negative effect of cofactors, namely increased body mass index and prolonged intake of COC, on the course of HPV as the leading etiological factor of breast cancer, will allow us to identify groups at increased risk of developing CC, form an individual algorithm for monitoring and examination throughout the entire period of taking COC, as well as conduct individual cancer prevention by limiting the duration of taking COC.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="ru"><p><bold>Введение.</bold> Рак шейки матки (РШМ) относится к раку визуальных локализаций и у женщин репродуктивного возраста по-прежнему остается одним из наиболее распространенных онкологических заболеваний. Канцерогенез шейки матки обусловлен персистенцией высокоонкогенных типов вируса папилломы человека (ВПЧ), уровень канцерогенности которого самый высокий на основании критериев Международного агентства по изучению рака. Однако не во всех случаях персистенции высокоонкогенных типов ВПЧ происходит канцерогенез шейки матки. Это, в свою очередь, определяет необходимость тщательного поиска, изучения и анализа возможных кофакторов, которые могут приводить к неопластическим изменениям шейки матки.</p><p><bold>Цель исследования</bold> – разработка модели прогнозирования индивидуального риска развития РШМ у женщин репродуктивного возраста с учетом клинико-анамнестических, лабораторных и гистологических данных.</p><p><bold>Материалы и методы.</bold> Материалом для исследования служили ретроспективные данные обследования 251 пациентки репродуктивного возраста, проходившей лечение в Центре гинекологии и репродуктивных технологий Национального медицинского исследовательского центра «Лечебно-реабилитационный центр» Минздрава России в период с 2015 по 2022 г. Результаты. Высокоонкогенные типы ВПЧ достоверно чаще встречались в группе пациенток с верифицированным РШМ, принимавших комбинированные оральные контрацептивы (КОК), по сравнению с пациентками, не принимавшими КОК (<italic>р</italic> = 0,035). Многофакторный анализ позволил нам определить, что длительный прием КОК суммарно &gt;7 лет ассоциирован с тенденцией к повышению риска развития РШМ (отношение рисков 1,68; 95 % доверительный интервал 1,1–2,5; <italic>р</italic> = 0,010). По результатам статистического расчета были получены значения коэффициентов регрессии, и тенденцию к повышению риска развития РШМ прогнозировали при наличии таких факторов, как персистенция ВПЧ 16-го типа, величина индекса массы тела и длительность приема КОК в годах.</p><p><bold>Выводы.</bold> Таким образом, учет всех возможных факторов риска развития РШМ, отрицательного влияния кофакторов, а именно повышенного индекса массы тела и длительного приема КОК, на течение ВПЧ-инфекции как на ведущий этиологический фактор РШМ позволит выделить группы повышенного риска развития РШМ, сформировать индивидуальный алгоритм наблюдения и обследования на протяжении всего периода приема КОК, а также провести индивидуальную онкопрофилактику путем ограничения длительности приема КОК.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>cervical cancer</kwd><kwd>human papillomavirus</kwd><kwd>combined oral contraceptives</kwd><kwd>obesity</kwd><kwd>mathematical model</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>рак шейки матки</kwd><kwd>вирус папилломы человека</kwd><kwd>комбинированные оральные контрацептивы</kwd><kwd>ожирение</kwd><kwd>математическая модель</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="en">The study was performed without external funding.</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Исследование проведено без спонсорской поддержки.</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><body></body><back><ref-list><ref id="B1"><label>1.</label><mixed-citation>Sung H., Ferlay J., Siegel R.L. et al. 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